Reliability analysis of a single warm-standby system subject to repairable and nonrepairable failures

An n-unit system provisioned with a single warm standby is investigated. The individual units are subject to repairable failures, while the entire system is subject to a nonrepairable failure at some finite but random time in the future. System performance measures for systems observed over a time interval of random duration are introduced. Two models to compute these system performance measures, one employing a policy of block replacement, and the other without a block replacement policy, are developed. Distributional assumptions involving distributions of phase type introduce matrix Laplace transformations into the calculations of the performance measures. It is shown that these measures are easily carried out on a laptop computer using Microsoft Excel. A simple economic model is used to illustrate how the performance measures may be used to determine optimal economic design specifications for the warm standby.     

Imprecise probability models for learning multinomial distributions from data. Applications to learning credal networks

This paper considers the problem of learning multinomial distributions from a sample of independent observations. The Bayesian approach usually assumes a prior Dirichlet distribution about the probabilities of the different possible values. However, there is no consensus on the parameters of this Dirichlet distribution. Here, it will be shown that this is not a simple problem, providing examples in which different selection criteria are reasonable. To solve it the Imprecise Dirichlet Model (IDM) was introduced. But this model has important drawbacks, as the problems associated to learning from indirect observations. As an alternative approach, the Imprecise Sample Size Dirichlet Model (ISSDM) is introduced and its properties are studied. The prior distribution over the parameters of a multinomial distribution is the basis to learn Bayesian networks using Bayesian scores. Here, we will show that the ISSDM can be used to learn imprecise Bayesian networks, also called credal networks when all the distributions share a common graphical structure. Some experiments are reported on the use of the ISSDM to learn the structure of a graphical model and to build supervised classifiers.     

端部激励相位差下斜拉索的非线性振动

斜拉桥中拉索承受着多种端部激励，可激发大幅空间振动．以斜拉索为对象，探究不同端部激励间相位差对其非线性振动的影响．首先，推导斜拉索无量纲离散控制方程，引入考虑相位的三向端部激励得到一般化模型；然后，针对拉索下端存在的纵桥向、竖向和横桥向激励的两两组合，受大幅或小幅激励，及其在主共振区或主参数共振区几组因素，共计12种工况，采用数值分析法分别研究了各工况下不同激励相位差时的斜拉索稳态响应．研究发现：激励相位差能加剧与激励频率相近的面内、外模态振动；在任意端部激励组合下，激励相位差不仅可使斜拉索非线性振动出现定量变化，还可改变内共振的表现形式．面内、外激励组合下，相位差对拉索响应幅值的影响以π为周期变化，且当相位差趋于π/2 + kπ (k = 0, 1, 2…)时影响最为突出；而面内激励组合下，以2π为变化周期，当相位差为π + 2kπ (k = 0, 1, 2, …)时其对稳态幅值的影响最显著．其原因是：面外激励关于拉索所在的竖直面对称，故其本质上以π为周期；而面内激励无此对称性，仍以2π为周期．因此，有无面外激励参与决定了激励间相位差对斜拉索响应的影响规律．     

NIFTy 3 – Numerical Information Field Theory: A Python Framework for Multicomponent Signal Inference on HPC Clusters

NIFTy , “Numerical Information Field Theory,” is a software framework designed to ease the development and implementation of field inference algorithms. Field equations are formulated independently of the underlying spatial geometry allowing the user to focus on the algorithmic design. Under the hood, NIFTy ensures that the discretization of the implemented equations is consistent. This enables the user to prototype an algorithm rapidly in 1D and then apply it to high‐dimensional real‐world problems. This paper introduces NIFTy  3, a major upgrade to the original NIFTy  framework. NIFTy  3 allows the user to run inference algorithms on massively parallel high performance computing clusters without changing the implementation of the field equations. It supports n‐dimensional Cartesian spaces, spherical spaces, power spaces, and product spaces as well as transforms to their harmonic counterparts. Furthermore, NIFTy  3 is able to handle non‐scalar fields, such as vector or tensor fields. The functionality and performance of the software package is demonstrated with example code, which implements a mock inference inspired by a real‐world algorithm from the realm of information field theory. NIFTy  3 is open‐source software available under the GNU General Public License v3 (GPL‐3) at https://gitlab.mpcdf.mpg.de/ift/NIFTy/tree/NIFTy_3 .     

��β�ӳ��������ģ�����Ʋ����ʵĽ�����

In this paper, for a kind of risk models with heavy-tailed and delayed claims, we derive the asymptotics of the infinite-time ruin probability and the uniform asymptotics of the finite-time ruin probability. The numerical simulation results are also presented. The results of theoretical analysis and numerical simulation show that the influence of the delay for the claim payment is nearly negligible to the ruin probability when the initial capital and running-time are all large.     

On a class of dependent Sparre Andersen risk models and a bailout application

In this paper a one-dimensional surplus process is considered with a certain Sparre Andersen type dependence structure under general interclaim times distribution and correlated phase-type claim sizes. The Laplace transform of the time to ruin under such a model is obtained as the solution of a fixed-point problem, under both the zero-delayed and the delayed cases. An efficient algorithm for solving the fixed-point problem is derived together with bounds that illustrate the quality of the approximation. A two-dimensional risk model is analyzed under a bailout type strategy with both fixed and variable costs and a dependence structure of the proposed type. Numerical examples and ideas for future research are presented at the end of the paper.     

反导火力单元空间杀伤区内拦截概率研究

拦截概率是评价反导作战效能的重要指标,对交战前任务规划至关重要。选取某一拦截弹建立其在空间的可达集区域,针对中段反导逆轨拦截情况,确立其在空间中的杀伤区。针对杀伤区内任一点可能为拦截点的情况,对某一来袭导弹的弹道轨迹,选取可拦截弧段上的理论拦截点,通过在选取不同高度上的理论拦截点上,调整拦截弹的发射位置,从而得到拦截点在杀伤区内不同高度,不同距离以及在不同的交汇角时对拦截概率的影响。为反导作战的阵地部署研究和交战策略提供了一定的参考。     

Perfect controlled joint remote state preparation independent of entanglement degree of the quantum channel

We construct a quantum circuit to produce a task-oriented partially entangled state and use it as the quantum channel for controlled joint remote state preparation. Unlike most previous works, where the parameters of the quantum channel are given to the receiver who can accomplish the task only probabilistically by consuming auxiliary resource, operation and measurement, here we give them to the supervisor. Thanks to the knowledge of the task-oriented quantum channel parameters, the supervisor can carry out proper complete projective measurement, which, combined with the feed-forward technique adapted by the preparers, not only much economizes (simplifies) the receiver's resource (operation) but also yields unit total success probability. Notably, such apparent perfection does not depend on the entanglement degree of the shared quantum channel. Our protocol is within the reach of current quantum technologies.     

Hidden Markov models revealing the stress field underlying the earthquake generation

The application of the hidden Markov models (HMMs) is attempted for revealing key features for the earthquake generation which are not accessible to direct observation. Considering that the states of the HMM correspond to levels of the stress field, our objective is to identify these states. The observations are considered after grouping earthquake magnitudes and the cases of different number of states are examined. The problems of HMMs theory are solved and the ensuing HMMs are compared on the basis of Akaike and Bayesian information criteria. A new insight on the evaluation of future seismic hazard is given by calculating the mean number of steps for the first visit to a particular state, along with the respective variance. We further calculate an estimator of the mean number of steps for the first visit to a particular state and we construct its confidence interval. Additionally, a second approach to the problem is followed by assuming a different determination of observations. The HMMs applied to both approaches, contribute significantly to seismic hazard assessment via revealing the number of the stress levels as well as the way in which these levels are associated with certain earthquake occurrence.     

Product Inhibited Enzymatic Reactions on the Rotating Disk Electrodes

A model of cyclic staircase voltammetry of enzymatic reactions on the rotating disk electrode is developed and the inhibition by the product is investigated. The responses are mostly time – dependent current – potential curves with maxima in the forward but not in the backward branch. If the maxima appear in both branches, the inhibition is potential – dependent either directly or indirectly. The source of the second maximum is explained.